Firm boasts formula to predict 'Idol' winner

San Francisco Examiner, May 16, 2009 By Katie Worth

Was the at-home audience wowed by heartthrob Kris Allen's acoustic version of Kanye West's "Heartless," or will it decide that rock star Adam Lambert with his wide-as-the-Mississippi vocal range should be the next American Idol?

A Redwood City company says they'll be able to answer that question even before America does.

Market research company Biz360 has accurately predicted which "American Idol" contestant will be voted off the show for the last three weeks in a row, and says it will do so again before the popular show airs its season finale next week.

The 40-person company, which opened in 2000 in San Mateo and moved to Redwood City last year, has tools that scour the Internet, searching through blogs, social networking sites and message boards for comments about names or products, and then evaluates whether the sentiment of those comments is positive or negative.

This tool is typically used to help other businesses determine how their products are being perceived by the public and to seek chinks in a competitor's armor, according to Biz360 Chief Marketing Officer Tony Priore.

But about a month ago, an employee of Priore's approached him about using that tool to predict the outcome of the "American Idol" contest. Priore, who admits in half-chagrin to be a closet devotee of the show, immediately liked the idea.

They began applying the latest technology, which they developed with Stanford University's Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, to American Idol chatter on the Internet, rating each contestant by how often their name came up, whether that frequency was trending up or down, and how positive or negative the comments were.

He was delighted when the system accurately predicted hours before the show aired that Matt Giraud would be voted off — and hours later he was.

The trick was repeated the following week with 17-year-old Allison Iraheta and last week with the surprising exit of the soulful Danny Gokey.

Biz360 will issue their "American Idol" finale prediction after Tuesday's performance show and before the results show airs on Wednesday.

"I'm pretty sure we'll be on the money," Priore said.